Bitcoin started Friday at $119,275 and broke above $120k. It peaked at $120,900 but retraced and closed at $118,022.
The apex coin continues its three-day trend of failing to decisively flip the $120,000 resistance. The 2-hour chart reveals that the largest cryptocurrency began its latest decline after breaking above its Bollinger Band. It has since been on a downtrend, with RSI at 39.
It is worth noting that the apex coin surged above the highlighted resistance on Thursday but ended the session below it, while printing a doji.
BTC price action on Saturday suggests a decline in market participation. It is not surprising, as it is the dominant trend over the weekend. However, trading action following Tuesday’s decline leaves many with questions about the asset’s next direction.
Data from Glassnode reveals that traders are selling at an alarming rate. Recall that a previous report stated that one group of holders was leading the charge. 95% of the supply from them was in profit, resulting in massive profit-taking.
The short-term holders held more profit than the long-term holders, leading them to dump their holdings hard. However, the whales are joining the frenzy. Aside from the OG who sold over 80k BTC, more are doing the same. Recent data indicate that the amount of assets moved into exchanges over the last three days was among the highest this year.
However, accumulation continues in other sectors. Traders are aggressively accumulating BTC ETFs at an alarming rate. The week shaped up as another bullish one for the investment fund as institutional investors added over 20k BTC in five days.
The constant toggling between accumulation and selling, coupled with the reduced volatility of Bitcoin, leaves many questioning its next price action.
Bitcoin Eyes Surge to $136k or Plummet to $105k
The chart below is the short-term holder cost basis model. It features five lines, with the black representing BTC’s price. The point of interest is where the apex coin is trading. It trades above the yellow line, depicted as the heated level or the +1 standard deviation.
A closer look at the image reveals that the largest coin trades primarily within this level and the blue line, which represents the cost basis. However, the apex coin mostly retraces after slightly breaking out of the yellow line. It happened on several occasions. One such was in January when it surged above it. It declined below the metric within three months.
The downtrend continued with Bitcoin slipping as low as the green line, which represents the cooled area. BTC risks such dips in the coming days. Retracing from its current price to the green line will result in a drop to the blue line, around $ 105,000. It is worth noting that such declines have played out on several occasions, increasing the likelihood of a repeat.
On the other hand, calls for a further increase are reaching a new level. Many speculate that the apex coin is currently consolidating and gearing up for the subsequent massive uptick. While the short-term holder cost basis model suggests that this is possible, previous price movements indicate it has a slim chance.
A closer look at the chart reveals that such an uptick has occurred only once since 2023. The trend occurred between February and April 2024.
