Bitcoin closed March with a slight positive change after notable volatility. The previous month was marked by uncertainty as geopolitical tensions repeatedly flared.
After hostilities began, the apex coin retraced but soon recovered and remained rangebound for an extended period.
Commenting on price action for the rest of the month, one outlook noted that the third month will be more bullish than the previous one. It also noted that BTC will likely end the session green.
The new month is off to a slow start. The apex coin has seen notable volatility over the last six days, but has yet to register a massive price swing. It is also up on the monthly scale by less than 1%.
The slow start casts doubts on how prices will play out in the coming days. There are also significant concerns about how fundamentals will affect prices.
At the time of writing, the biggest news affecting the market is the situation in the Middle East. Investors were expecting the hostilities to subside, but current talk of escalation is fueling fear. The apex coin is yet to register any notable price swing as a result.
In hindsight, March was slightly bullish, but the events that stunted Bitcoin’s rise remain. The current rhetoric from the White House also suggests that it may last the entire month of April. In a nutshell, based on current fundamentals, there may be no major price changes over the next 20 days.
Nonetheless, historical data offers a glimmer of hope amid a slightly bearish stance due to geopolitical tensions.
Going Into The Second Quarter
The first six days of April have not provided the thrills many will have expected. However, it’s not surprising as the apex coin is coming out of a bearish Q1.
In hindsight, the first quarter of 2026 saw the coin shed another massive chunk. It opened at $87,546 and closed at $68,216, down by over 22%. The latest decline marks the second consecutive quarter with over 20% in losses.
It is also the first time since 2018 that Q1 has ended with such losses. Amid the notable losses, questions arise about how the current will end.
Data from CryptoRank shows that the likelihood of a bearish Q2 after two red quarters is significant. The chart above shows the quarterly returns. A closer look reveals that two consecutive three-month periods are not rare. Additionally, three in a row has occurred on multiple occasions.
Since its inception, Bitcoin has posted losses of this magnitude three times. The latest was in 2022, when all four quarters ended with notable losses. Further back, between 2019 and 20 Q3, Q4, and Q1 were bearish.
The earliest one happened between 2014 and 15. Based on this data, the apex coin is not guaranteed to surge this quarter, and the current fundamentals support this assertion.
However, while current data suggest a 50% chance of further decline in the coming days, previous performance suggests the possibility of notable increases.
Focusing on price action in previous Q2s reveals that it is the most profitable session for BTC. Only 4 since inception have come out negative, and the asset gains an average of 158% each session.
Taking this into consideration, Bitcoin is likely to continue the trend in the coming days. However, the 158% on average is a far stretch. Nonetheless, a 5-10% surge is likely.
Summing it all up, there’s a higher likelihood that the current quarter will end with notable gains, but the asset risk sinking even lower in the coming days.
Interestingly, three of the last four red Q2s started with notable losses in April.
Bitcoin Eyes Green April
Bitcoin has yet to register any significant price moves over the last six days. It trades almost at its opening price at the time of writing, amid notable volatility.
With the first few days of April going in such a manner, there are speculations that the apex coin will retrace massively in the coming days.
A review of price movements over the last five years shows no clear pattern in price reactions. However, historical data on monthly returns offer better insight into how prices will perform in the coming days.
Historically, April is more profitable than March. On average, the apex coin gains over 31% in the fourth month, compared to the 10% in the third month. A closer look at the chart above shows that in periods where Bitcoin posted notable losses in the previous month, it has almost always performed better in the fourth month.
Reviewing the data shows an increased chance of April ending with notable gains. Given that the previous month ended with less than 2% positive change, the current one may end with around 5% if the trends improve.
Bitcoin Had a Bullish Crossover
Several analyses last week highlighted one event that could lead in significant losses for the apex coin. They noted the negative divergence on MACD, citing several instances in which the crossover signaled a notable downtrend.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin prints a reversal. The 12 and 26 EMAs are currently trending in proximity and gearing up for a positive crossover. It indicates that the bulls have seized the initiative and are poised to trigger another massive uptrend.
If the bulls continue to sustain the ongoing momentum, BTC will retest March’s high. Decisively flipping $76k will see the asset attempt $80k next.
However, this does not mean the apex coin has bottomed. A previous analysis suggested that the cycle’s low is around $55k and $50k. The chances of a drop to this level this month, amid the bullish history, are very low.
Summing it all up, Bitcoin will experience notable losses this quarter. However, a green close in April increases the odds of a bullish close to 75%. Additionally, the moving average convergence divergence provides the basis for further increases in the coming days.
