Bitcoin opened trading at $74,884 and surged to its highest value in more than thirty days. It broke above $76k a few hours ago, but the breakout was short-lived.
The apex coin is currently trading at $73,547 after a recent rejection. Down by almost 2% on Tuesday, it may post its first red day after eight days of consecutive gains.
In hindsight, the apex coin is having one of its most extensive uptrends of 2026. Zooming out, this is one of its best performances since October. The latest uptrend kicked off last Monday and lasted the entire week.
It continued during the previous intraday session, resulting in an almost 3% hike. Over the last eight days, the apex coin gained over 15%. However, it showed the first signs of trouble on Tuesday, declining almost 2% from its peak.
The 15% increase is among the largest surges recorded since the market went fully bearish in October. The figure is rivaled only by the hike from $62,525 to $74,075 between late February and early March. These figures suggest improved market conditions over the last 30 days.
The latest uptrend is no surprise, as a recent outlook noted that March will be more bullish than the previous month. It added that the month will be characterized by reduced downtrends and quick recoveries. So far, price action has played out as predicted.
However, focusing on Tuesday’s price action raises some concerns about the next price movement. The first sign of shrinking bullish dominance appeared a few hours ago, as the asset edged closer to its first red candle.
Will Bitcoin Retrace Further This Week?
As of Monday, Darkfost noted that the apex coin is experiencing notable buying pressure. In February, the “30-day moving average volume delta was deeply negative, with -$145M on Binance and -$88M on Coinbase.”
However, the trend reversed in March amid rising tensions in the Middle East. The readings on Mar 16 show the 30-day moving-average volume delta back in positive territory, around +$21M and +$14M.
In summary, investors are more bullish this month than they were the previous month. As such, the coin has the potential to surge as predicted.
However, there are indications that the current uptrend is gradually fizzling out. Recent reports from Glassnode show that “the STH-Realized Profit (12HR-SMA) spiked to $18.4M/hr.” Interestingly, the same trend was present in “February, where short-term holders continue to exhaust each rally at the +$70k level.”
Additionally, recent data from CryptoQuant indicates that traders’ spending is gradually increasing. The Bitcoin Spent Output Age Bands show which investor group is selling and when. One post noted that since January 2025, when this metric surged above 950k, massive declines have followed.
As of Monday, spending was at 942k BTC, less than 8k from the threshold that signals massive retracement. If the metric surpasses the stipulated mark, the recent uptrend ends.
Aside from onchain data, the 1-day chart also highlights several reasons for further declines. The first is the recent uptrend in duration; the last one before the latest spanned eight days before retracement. The current has been running for eight days and is showing the first signs of trouble.
If history repeats itself, the apex coin will retrace even lower in the coming days.
Indicators Flip Negative
On the 1-day chart, several indicators are currently flipping negative in reaction to the latest increase. For example, the apex coin surged above the bollinger bands on Monday. The last time this happened, prices retraced the next day. Its latest decline may be in response to this trend.
Aside from the BB, the average directional index prints sell signals at the time of writing. A closer look at the chart shows it trended upward when prices surged and downward when prices fell. Although a lagging indicator, it has ended its downtrend and is gearing up for an uptrend. Bitcoin may be gearing up for further decline in the coming days based on this metric.
In summary, based on price and onchain indicators, the apex coin is gearing up for a trend reversal. However, fundamentals may postpone the downtrend. The US Federal Reserve will announce its decision on interest rates on Wednesday.
As it stands, investors expect rates to remain unchanged but are open to surprises. The US president recently called on the institution to cut rates amid the current conflict and rising oil prices. Many analysts have described the calls as irresponsible and a move that could trigger massive inflation.
Nonetheless, it remains to be seen if the president will get what he called for. If this happens, the surprise investors are open to will take place. In turn, Bitcoin will surge even higher, and if rates remain the same, the asset will likely retrace.
Bitcoin to Lose $70k
The fibonacci retracement levels show that the apex coin once shuffled between the 38% mark and 0% mark. However, it broke out during the previous intraday session and is currently trending above the 38% fib level.
If the bulls resume buying, it may continue its uptrend, with a target set at the 50% boundary. This will mean an attempt at $77k may follow. The chance of a surge, although minimal, is buoyed by the defense of the $73k mark.
If Bitcoin slips below the 38% fibonacci level, it may continue lower, losing the $70k support. A look at the liquidation heatmap shows that the apex coin will continue to decline until it experiences buybacks at $69k and $68k. The fuel for the buyback will be the liquidation cluster at this mark.
In summary, a drop below $70k is almost certain once the $73k support breaks.
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