Bitcoin may not be done climbing, despite recently hitting new all-time highs. The apex coin surged past $123,000 for the first time on July 14, following earlier highs of $112,000 on July 9 and $118,000 on July 11.
Notably, these sharp moves reflect renewed momentum in the market. Yet despite the surge, on-chain data suggests there’s still room for more upside. A key profit-taking metric used by analysts remains below levels that typically signal a local top.
STH MVRV Shows Room for Caution
The indicator in question is the Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (STH MVRV) ratio. It compares the market price of crypto assets held by recent buyers to their average acquisition price, offering insight into when these holders might be inclined to sell.
When the STH MVRV ratio approaches 1.35, short-term holders are typically sitting on about 35% in unrealized profits. Historically, these levels have often coincided with local price tops, as many participants begin to take profits.
However, data from on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant shows the current STH MVRV ratio remains around 1.15, indicating unrealized profits of just 15%. This suggests the market has not yet entered the zone where widespread profit-taking typically begins.
CryptoQuant underscored the trend with a chart comparing past cycles. In each case, BTC saw a short-term correction after the STH MVRV neared 1.35. So far in the current cycle, that threshold hasn’t been reached.
Can the Rally Continue?
One reason the STH MVRV ratio remains subdued is the rising cost basis for new market participants. The average buying price for short-term BTC holders recently went above $102,000. That means many new buyers entered the market when prices were already high.
So even though bitcoin climbed past $123,000 before dropping back, most of these buyers have only made small profits. Because their gains aren’t large, they’re not rushing to sell, which helps explain why the market isn’t seeing heavy selling right now.
Consequently, with no major profit-taking signals flashing yet, the market may still have room to move higher. According to the analysis platform, BTC could climb another 20% to 25% before reaching the critical MVRV threshold again.
“There may still be a bullish window before the next round of widespread profit-taking begins,” CryptoQuant stated.
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Faith | March 13, 2026
Chris Lion | March 13, 2026
