Here’s Why the Crypto Market Cycle Peak May Shift to 2026

Crypto analyst Lark Davis suggests that the current market cycle may extend into 2026, rather than peaking in late 2025. He based his outlook on the traditional four-year business cycle while also weighing bitcoin’s recent performance.

According to the analyst, the four-year cycle usually features two years of expansion followed by two years of contraction. By that model, the current market would typically be set to peak in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Everyone’s expecting this cycle to peak in Q4 this year.

But I think we’re going way deeper into 2026.

Here’s why:

The classic 4-year business cycle usually have 2 years of expansion and 2 years contraction.

That should’ve lined up with a Q4 2025 top.

But this time, the ISM… pic.twitter.com/yoCVd6r7LZ

— Lark Davis (@TheCryptoLark) October 1, 2025

ISM Signals Delay

In an X post on Wednesday, Davis noted that the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index has remained below 50 for more than two years. For clarity, the ISM index is widely used to track U.S. manufacturing health.

A score above 50 reflects sector expansion, while one below 50 signals contraction. Based on this, Davis argued that the expected expansion phase of the business cycle has not yet begun.

As a result, the ongoing weakness could delay the market peak until well into 2026. Davis added that if historical patterns hold, the cycle may extend longer than many participants currently expect.

BTC Performance Fuels Market Debate

Bitcoin’s 2025 performance has fueled further debate on the market outlook. The asset hit a new all-time high above $124,000 in August, showing strong demand despite global uncertainty.

From January through September, BTC recorded six green monthly candles and three red ones. September closed positively, keeping hopes alive for “Uptober,” a month that has often been bullish after a green September.

For context, Bitstamp data from TradingView shows bitcoin opened in September near $108,000 and ended the month above $117,000. This rally has sparked debate among analysts. Some see it as evidence of a sustained expansion, while others view it as a step toward a later peak.

Meanwhile, Davis’s chart of the four-year business cycle illustrates how a delayed expansion could push the market timeline forward. In light of both this outlook and bitcoin’s strong performance, analysts remain divided on where the cycle currently stands. Some expect a 2025 peak, while others point to a possible extension into 2026.