This Indicator Predicts a Bull Market Top in Early September

As the bull cycle progresses, market experts are speculating about when the market will reach its peak and begin to show signs of a bear run. While analysts continue to give their opinions, a market indicator has flashed a signal that predicts the cycle top could occur in less than two months.

According to a CryptoQuant report, the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio points to a potential cycle peak between late August and early September. This prediction suggests that market participants may have little to no time to capitalize on the bull market – that is, if the Bitcoin cycle theory still applies.

Cycle Top in September

Pseudonymous CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei Dent explained that the 365-day moving average (MA) of the MVRV ratio could help analyze the market as bitcoin (BTC) consolidates below $120,000. Historical data shows this metric has often aligned with previous bull market tops.

During the bull run in 2021, the MVRV 365-day MA formed a double-top camel pattern, which preceded a peak six months later. The last bear market began shortly after that camel pattern. Essentially, the market had its turning point after hitting the peak.

This year, the metric has followed a similar pattern, with a six-month interval. This suggests a top is forming around September 10. However, since the MVRV 365-day MA is a lagging indicator, BTC could experience its peak and reversal earlier, possibly by late August.

Yonsei Dent said the MVRV 365-day MA’s prediction aligns with broader market narratives. Macro dynamics highlight possible changes in macro sentiment and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

“In short, we’re entering a zone where optimism and caution must coexist. Let on-chain timing guide your strategy — now is the time to tighten risk management and stay nimble,” the analyst stated.

Is the Bitcoin Cycle Theory Dead?

Although the MVRV 365-day MA signals a market top by early September, Bitcoin’s four-year cycle theory suggests otherwise. Going by past bull market data, BTC is expected to conclude its bull run between October and December 2025. The previous bull cycle reached its peak in November 2021 before the bear market set in.

However, some market experts, such as Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, believe this case will be different this time. Ju insists the Bitcoin cycle theory is dead because adoption has spread, and BTC holders now outnumber traders.

Get Trending Crypto News as It Happens. Follow CoinTab News on X (Twitter) Now