Bitcoin is ending August as its first bearish month since April. It experienced significant losses over the last thirty days, despite several bullish moments.
On the 1-day scale, the apex coin prints a red candle following another failed attempt at recovery. The massive losses it incurred on Friday and Monday remain fresh in the minds of many as they fear further declines.
Nonetheless, the last 30 days were marked by a significant amount of activity from investors and institutions. While many wallets came alive, reports continue of significant accumulations by firms with strategic Bitcoin reserves.
One of the newest companies to join the wave is Satsuma Technology PLC. It announced the end of its funding round on August 6 and secured $217 million to bolster its Bitcoin treasury. The round was one many described as ‘oversubscribed‘ as backers, including ParaFi, Pantera, DCG, and Kraken.
Other firms and accumulators like Strategy took the front seat, buying the dip after price corrections. However, there was a shift in its pattern over the last thirty days; the volume was smaller. On one occasion, it bought $51 million worth of the coin and even fewer in other cases.
Nonetheless, the apex coin saw several waves of accumulation after another. The latest development occurred between Monday and Tuesday, when HODL15Capital reported that public treasury companies collectively added 4,330 BTC.
Aside from Bitcoin itself, investors bought and sold a significant amount of exchange-traded funds. The US spot ETFs, in particular, saw notable inflows but are ending the month with negative net flows. The investment fund prints its first red candle after four months of a massive influx of capital. August is closing with a monthly total flow of $751 million.
Bitcoin Attained a New Milestone
The 1-day chart shows that the apex coin registered significant gains during the first of the month, gaining over 10%. However, it surged to a new all-time high. The milestone occurred on August 14, when it peaked at $124,517, $1,281 higher than the high in July. Nonetheless, the asset retraced afterward, losing over 4%.
The trading action after the ATH marked a significant shift in the price trajectory, as more declines soon followed. The 1-week chart shows that the coin has been in a downtrend, losing almost 2% in the week starting August 11.
BTC continued downward from there, dropping another 3% the next seven-day session. However, there was a false hope of recovery as the candle depicts a plummet to $110,671 from $117,465, but a slight rebound happened, and the asset ended the session at $113,478.
The last week of the 30-day period is shaping up to be the most bearish, as the coin continues to decline. The largest cryptocurrency has retraced below $110,000 for the first time in almost two months. It rebounded at $107,389 and trades slightly higher at the time of writing.
On the 1-month scale, the apex coin is down by almost 6%, printing its first red candle since April. Nonetheless, there are fears about how Bitcoin will perform in the coming month.
Going into September
When the corrections started earlier this month, many proponents called for calm, saying it won’t last. One such is Brian Armstrong, the CEO of Coinbase. He said that he believes that Bitcoin will be worth $1 million by 2030.
The CEO noted that regulatory clarity, government involvement, and institutional demand will be the trigger for this valuation, and they are currently reshaping expectations for the world’s largest digital asset.
Aligning with Armstrong’s assertion is JP Morgan. The institution that $3.6 trillion in assets recently said that the coin is undervalued. It added that the asset is relatively cheap compared to gold. However, it noted that Bitcoin’s volatility has declined considerably, as its six-month statistics represent a drop from 60% to 30%.
After analysing these reports, it is easy to conclude that the apex coin will surge higher in September. Another factor that many investors consider is the recent shift in the US Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rate cuts. They view the cut as another critical factor that could influence how prices react in the coming month.
However, previous records indicate a different stance about how Bitcoin will perform in the tenth month of the year. The apex coin is heading into its most bearish thirty-day period and may retrace to levels not seen in months.
On average, BTC loses over 5%, the highest of the year. A closer look at trading actions reveals that the asset experienced notable losses in nine of the last 15 years, with the largest declines occurring in 2011, when it plummeted by over 44%. Nonetheless, it registered its most significant increase the next year, gaining over 13%.
Bitcoin Below $100k is Inevitable
The 1-week chart indicates that Bitcoin is in a downtrend following a long-overdue correction. A closer look at the chart reveals several events that may affect the coin in September.
First off, the bollinger bands. BTC tested the upper band in the session that started on July 11. The asset retraced, dropping to a new monthly low two weeks later. However, it is worth noting that the last time such an event took place, the coin fell to the lower band.
The second major event is that the apex coin overbought on the first week of July. Although the cryptocurrency is experiencing notable retracements and the relative strength index is neutral, the RSI has yet to drop to previous rebound levels.
Nonetheless, a closer look at the chart reveals that, on average, Bitcoin loses over 25% of its value after becoming overbought. However, the largest cryptocurrency is down by barely 10%. Based on previous trends, BTC is expected to see further declines.
An additional 15% decline from the latest drop will see the apex coin retrace below $100k, edging closer to $92k. The Bollinger bands agree with this trend, noting that the asset may retrace to the lower band at $90k.
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