Bitcoin peaked at $79,500 a few hours ago, buoyed by the news of the ceasefire extension between the US and Iran.
The last 48 hours have presented a rollercoaster of emotions for traders. Following the US president’s first address on Tuesday, sentiment across the crypto market was dampened. Several cryptocurrencies soon shed almost 2%.
Investors panicked as Donald Trump announced no extension to the ceasefire agreement and hinted at preparedness to continue the hostilities. He also dangled the prospect of an interest rate hike in the coming days.
However, towards the end of the day, new information from the White House emerged. The president has decided to hold off on the attacks until further notice. He followed up his statement on Wednesday, announcing a three-day extension.
The crypto market reacted with significant buying pressure. Trading volume soared by 18% as other metrics flipped bullish. Bitcoin also attained a fresh milestone, flipping $79k for the first time since February.
The latest hike is unsurprising as several articles hinted at such a surge. Following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz last week, one analysis noted that an attempt to reach $80k would follow. A recent outlook also re-echoed this claim.
Nonetheless, amid the current uptrend, there are telling signs that the apex coin is nearing its peak for this uptrend. Market analyst Killa recently stated he’ll open a short around $78k and set a stop-loss at $83k. He has made other posts calling the peak between $78k to $80k.
Explaining the reason for his conviction, he stated that “1 week closure above 83K as invalidation.” It remains to be seen if his conviction will pay off. However, recent data from Glassnode suggests it may.
Bitcoin Accumulation Slows
Based on CryptoQuant’s current data, buying is slowing amid the uptrend. As of Monday, different holders have bought and sold Bitcoin. However, amid recent accumulation from Strategy, sharks (100-1k BTC holders) led the buying. They bought over 96k BTC at the time, while whales and humpbacks sold over 47k units.
On Tuesday, trading volume dropped. Nonetheless, sharks continued to accumulate, reaching over 83k units, while the other cohort sold at a slower rate than on Tuesday. As a result, the bands representing accumulation and distribution are contracting.
In recent times, these contractions have resulted in a significant decline days later. Such an event happened on Friday, heralding the weekend downtrend. Another occurrence happened in late March, resulting in a 8% decline. If the trend repeats, the apex coin may retrace even lower within the next seven days.
Aside from data on accumulation and distribution, the realized price age bands suggest that a trend reversal is almost inevitable in the coming days. The chart above shows the cost basis of different holders.
For example, the CB for holders who have held over the last 12m-18m is $92,225. The apex coin is well below this mark. Nonetheless, since October, the 1m-3m CB has been a strong resistance. When prices tested the band towards the end of the month, it retraced. Another such occurrence happened mid-January, yielding the same result.
The bulls have struggled to keep the price above this CB, as this group is famous for taking profit when the price hits their realized price. At the time of writing, their cost basis is at $74,420. Bitcoin is currently trading above it.
The constricting bands from the accumulation and distribution metric suggest that the cohort may be gearing up to resume profit-taking. If that happens, prices will retrace.
Bitcoin Gamma Exposure Flashes Red
Recent data from Glassnode shows that volatility has declined significantly, even as prices have risen, as no one wants to pay more for insurance in the options market. Realized volatility has since dropped to 41%.
Focusing on Skew over the longer timeframe (1m-6m), demand for puts remains at 10-12%, indicating investor caution. However, the most important metric relevant to current price action is gamma. The largest red zone is around $75k, where the dealer bought heavily. It was also a contributing factor to the current rise.
Meanwhile, gamma flips positive around $80k. Dealers will likely sell at this level, triggering a trend reversal in prices. In summary, gamma data suggest that the apex coin is nearing its peak for the current uptrend.
Aside from this data, the expiry scheduled for Friday has its pain price at $72k. Worth over $8.6 billion, the calls account for 57,263 of the total 109,306. Bitcoin’s current price also indicates that the bulls are in profit.
However, the Greek table suggests that market makers will flip bearish at $78k. Delta flips positive at this mark, forcing MMs to short the assets. Latest data from reveals dwindling volume, reducing the likelihood of spot volume pushing past this level on Friday. MMs will then move to pull the price close to the pain price.
What to Expect
An earlier-mentioned analysis noted that the only obstacle to flipping $80k is the sell wall at $79,300 and added that breaking it will guarantee a surge above the resistance.
BTC suggests that it attempted the mark but failed to decisively break it. Looking at the previous trend when it succumbed to the sell wall in February, the apex coin may be gearing up for further decline in the coming days.
Given Thursday’s growing reputation of being a low-performing day for the bulls, the reversal may begin in the next 24 hours. Nonetheless, the Fibonacci retracement levels offer a glimmer of hope for a move toward $80k. BTC is trading above the 50% mark. The likelihood of a flip or retest at $81k increases if it sustains momentum above this level. Conversely, if it slips below the mark, it may plummet to $73k next.
In summary, onchain data indicates that Bitcoin is nearing its high or has peaked. They point to the reversal starting between $79k and $81k. Meanwhile, the 1-day chart suggests it has already started.
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