Bitcoin is trading at $114,271 at the time of writing. Its recent price signifies recovery from the decline it had earlier on Tuesday.
The apex coin dropped to $112,700 before rebounding, but has yet to register any significant increase as the day draws to a close.
BTC is trading notably higher than it did last week. It had its biggest decline on Thursday, losing almost 4% and dropping to a low of $108,652. Its recent price shows it’s trading almost 5% higher than the previous low.
Nonetheless, the apex coin is edging closer to ending September with significant increases. It is worth noting that August ended down by 6%, casting a bearish outlook on the next month. Previous records also revealed that the most prominent cryptocurrency registers huge losses during the ninth month, branding it the most bearish.
An outlook noted these factors, highlighted readings from several indicators, and suggested a drop below $100k. However, current trading action indicates that this never happened. BTC is edging closer to ending the ninth month with gains exceeding 5%.
Interestingly, the much-anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut failed to have the desired impact on the coin as earlier predicted. The asset rose to a high of $117,968, gaining less than 2% before retracements started.
Nonetheless, other indicators could raise concerns. One such is the recent weakening of the spot market. Several analyses resounded this trend, noting how it may affect further price movement.
The apex coin received a huge boost from exchange-traded funds over the last thirty days. The volume in ETFs was significantly higher than in the previous month. These investment funds post a volume of $150 billion and a net inflow of $3 billion.
Bitcoin Gears for October
Bitcoin is poised for a strong start to its tenth month, following its recent rebound. However, fundamentals suggest that this bid may face a likely hindrance.
The likelihood of the US government shutting down has risen to a new high, as there has been no major breakthrough on action to halt it. The US Congress continues to deliberate on how to move forward with the appropriation bill, but has yet to reach a consensus.
However, many analysts argue that the shutdown will have little to no impact on the crypto market. Previous data offer a differing opinion. For example, BTC lost over 10% during the 2018 shutdown. A repeat of this trend will have far-reaching consequences for the apex coin.
Nonetheless, a recent report suggests that over 900k civil servants will go unpaid during the duration of inactivity. These individuals will likely tap into their savings to get through this period. Those who hold crypto will do the same, causing significant selloffs.
However, Jim Kramer suggests that the effect may not be strong for stocks. He added that the United States has just raised its public debt ceiling, so payments on government bonds are safe. If this holds, the crypto market may not be significantly impacted.
Nonetheless, one effect that every analyst and market observer agrees on is the delay in the release of key macroeconomic statistics, such as inflation, the labor market, and the Fed’s decision to cut rates.
1-day Chart Blare Warnings
Amid the impending green close for September, previous price movements suggest a high probability of further retracement in October. It is worth noting that since July, the apex coin has consistently breached the $120k resistance. However, this did not play out over the last 30 days as BTC failed to break above the $118k wall.
A dominant trait of a long-term uptrend coming to an end is the gradual decline in its highs. The apex coin must flip the $118k barrier to break out of the current trend. Nonetheless, the asset continues to exhibit weak spot volumes, a trend that has become more pronounced over the last 30 days.
If current trading conditions remain unchanged, the largest cryptocurrency may decline further, potentially dropping below $100k.
However, several proponents expressed conviction that Bitcoin will surge to $150k. Records indicate that October is a bullish month, with the apex coin gaining an average of over 15% in value. A surge to the target price will see the coin post gains exceeding 30%, which is within bounds, as the highest gain during the tenth month was 53%.
Nonetheless, indicators on the 1-day chart point to an increased likelihood of such a hike. The moving average convergence divergence prints buy signals, showing a crossover nearing completion. A divergence will signal further increases.
Additionally, BTC tested its bollinger bands last week. It retraced to the lower band and briefly slipped below it. It is in the middle band at the time of writing, indicating that buyback continues. It may continue upward, nearing the upper band above the $118k resistance.
However, the relative strength index reveals a spike in buying volume. It is at 53, indicating room for further increases in the coming days.
Bitcoin Enters Bullish Quarter
Compared to Q3, the last quarter of the year is almost always bullish. Over the previous fourteen years since Bitcoin’s inception, it has registered losses in only five instances, with an average gain of 85% during this period.
Heading into Q4, the sentiment among Bitcoin proponents has been overwhelmingly positive. If this translates to prices, the $150k all-time may become a reality.
However, the 1-month chart shows reasons for caution. The apex coin broke above the bollinger bands twice in the last two months. Previous price movements suggest that it registers significant declines after such breakouts.
If this holds, the asset may experience a notable decline in the coming days. As a result, it may end Q4 with no significant improvement in price.
