Bitcoin ETFs See $2.34B Weekly Inflows — Can BTC Defy September’s Odds?

For the third consecutive time, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recorded positive weekly inflows. This comes as Bitcoin (BTC) continues to consolidate and struggles to break past the $120,000 range.

The development raises the question of whether the inflows will persist long enough to trigger a rally that defies the negative seasonality historically seen in September.

Third Consecutive Week of Inflows

Between September 8 and 12, the spot Bitcoin ETF market witnessed the inflow of at least $2.34 billion. Some funds recorded individual outflows, but collectively, the pack saw none. 

The funds saw their highest day of positive flows on Wednesday, September 10, totaling $741.5 million. On that day, eight of the 11 products saw inflows, and none recorded outflows. As the week drew to a close, the funds experienced their second-highest day of inflows on September 12, surpassing $642 million. Like Wednesday, there were no outflows; however, only five of the products recorded inflows.

The third-highest inflows occurred on Thursday, September 11, with $552 million, and, once again, there were no outflows. In fact, the U.S. spot ETF market only recorded outflows from the funds on Tuesday, September 9. Notwithstanding the withdrawals, the funds collectively had inflows of $23 million.

Bullish or Bearish September?

Although last week marked the third consecutive week with inflows into the products, it was the first week that recorded no daily outflows since the third week of July. This could be a sign that demand is rising again, regardless of September’s reputation for being a historically negative month.

Data from CoinGlass shows BTC consistently posting negative returns every September from 2017 to 2022. Although the asset recorded minimal gains for the months of 2023 and 2024, September is generally considered a negative month for BTC. 

Analysts have predicted that BTC will fall to a cyclical low this month in preparation for the major rallies often seen in the fourth quarters of post-halving years. While this remains to be seen, current market dynamics – particularly demand from ETFs and institutions – could reverse the trend and give BTC a positive ending this month.

Possible case scenarios could see BTC fall as low as $90,000 within the next two weeks or climb back above $120,000, defying the odds of September.

Meanwhile, spot Ethereum ETFs also recorded minimal outflows last week, ending with net inflows of approximately $638 million.

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