Market Times:


New York:


Veteran Trader Peter Brandt Claims $73k Was the Bitcoin Top

Veteran analyst Peter Brandt says Bitcoin has already topped at $73k and sees the leading cryptocurrency dipping to mid-$30,000.

three bitcoins

Against popular opinion, chart veteran Peter Brandt has alleged that Bitcoin may have topped $73,000. In a blog post on Friday, he noted that the current bull run might have ended and expects the crypto asset to decline to mid-$30,000 or even lower.

Peter based his latest view on the concept of ‘exponential decay,’ a statistical principle often used to describe the gradual decrease of an asset’s quantity over time.

“The fact is that the bull market cycles in Bitcoin have lost a tremendous amount of thrust over the years. You may like the story of this data or not – but you will have to deal with it (or at least account for it, adjust for it or just plain ignore it). In fact, I don’t like the Exponential Decay occurring in Bitcoin – Bitcoin is one of my personal largest investment positions,” Brandt stated on his blog.

Will Exponential Decay Kick-In?

According to Brandt, historical data shows that each of the last bull runs experienced approximately an 80% exponential decay, meaning that the next was just 20% of the gain multiplier of the previous.

His data showed that from the first bull run between 2009 and 2011, Bitcoin rose 3191x from $0.01 to $31.91. The next cycle between 2011 and 2013 saw an 82% decay in multiplier gains as the asset moved 572x from a $2.1 low to $1,242.

The exponential decay continued in the same manner in the 2015–2017 and 2018–2022 bull runs, showing a consistent pattern of price multiplier decrement of 78.6% and 81.9%, respectively.

If this pattern continues, Bitcoin has already grown more than 20% of the previous multiplier gain (22), moving over 4.5x from the 2018-2022 bull run low of $15,473. Thus, the $73,471 Bitcoin reached on March 14 may have spelled the cycle top for the crypto asset.

A 25% Bet Though

Brandt placed a 25% bet on the Bitcoin top analysis. He, however, noted that if it turned out to be accurate, Bitcoin would dip to as low as $30,000, a price last seen in October 2023.

Despite his current stance, Brandt maintains a positive outlook on Bitcoin, suggesting that ”such a decline is the most bullish thing that could happen from a long-term view.” He also points to the recent halving event as a potential catalyst to alter the trajectory of Bitcoin’s ‘exponential decay’ historical data.

The latest analysis from Brandt contradicts his earlier bullish stance on Bitcoin. In February, the veteran charter stated that the crypto asset would reach $200,000 by September 2025.

Elendu Benedict

Elendu Benedict is a professional writer with sheer competence in crypto-related journalism. With a background in Engineering, Benedict specialises on news related to ETFs, market analysis, and macroeconomic policies that affects the crypto market.