Ethereum ETF Approval Odds Suddenly Jump to 75%, Sending Crypto Market Soaring

Following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January, several fund managers, notably including BlackRock, have been working towards bringing to market a similar product for the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, Ether (ETH). While such efforts seemed like a failure lying in wait since then, a new development has suddenly raised hopes and sent the price of cryptocurrencies to fresh monthly highs on Monday.

What’s Up With the Ethereum ETF Applications?

Multiple reports on Monday confirmed that officials from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have finally begun engaging with exchanges that filed listing applications on behalf of fund managers. The securities regulator is requesting that these exchanges update pending 19b-4 applications submitted earlier this year.

This development is notable as it marks the first time the regulator has signaled an interest in collaborating with potential Ethereum ETF issuers to make the product a reality. Such communications were largely a component of the Bitcoin ETF approval process but have taken so long to come for Ethereum since funds began indicating an interest in offering the product.

Following this development, Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart raised the odds of a potential Ethereum ETF launch in the U.S. from a meager 25% to 75%. The experienced market analysts, who accurately called the launch of the spot Bitcoin ETFs, had kept the odds of an ETH ETF at that low range for several months, citing a lack of cooperation between the SEC and issuers. The raised odds evidently reflect the current reported engagement between the SEC and prospective Ethereum ETF issuers.

When Can an Ethereum ETF Launch?

It is worth noting that the latest development does not necessarily mean that an Ethereum ETF will launch in the United States as soon as this week when the SEC must decide on the last pending application. Instead, it opens up the possibility that the SEC will review and approve these forms and potentially the registration statements for these funds in the coming weeks and months.

Update: @JSeyff and I are increasing our odds of spot Ether ETF approval to 75% (up from 25%), hearing chatter this afternoon that SEC could be doing a 180 on this (increasingly political issue), so now everyone scrambling (like us everyone else assumed they’d be denied). See… https://t.co/gcxgYHz3om

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) May 20, 2024

Nonetheless, investors in the crypto market are apparently comfortable even with the slight news of the SEC making a U-turn on its earlier stance on the Ethereum ETF. Following the latest development, the crypto market gained 6%, surpassing the $2.5 trillion mark for the first time since the second week of April.

Unsurprisingly, Ethereum (ETH) led the gains with a 15% increase in the past 24 hours, trading around $3,400 at the time of writing. Bitcoin, meanwhile, briefly crossed $70,000, while several other coins in the top 20 are also in green on the day.