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CoinMarketCap Report Suggests an Earlier-Than-Expected Bull Market

The report suggests that BTC may be entering a supercycle, driven by increased institutional adoption, Bitcoin ETFs, and changing market dynamics.

Avatar image of Jonathan Agozie Jonathan Agozie•October 4, 2024
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Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be accelerating its bull market cycle, running approximately 100 days ahead of its typical four-year cycle, according to a recent market research report from CoinMarketCap (CMC). 

The report suggested that BTC may be breaking away from its traditional cycle and entering a potential supercycle. The shift is attributed to increased institutional adoption, the introduction of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and evolving market dynamics.

Bull Market 100 Days Ahead

CMC noted that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is significant as it reflects the cryptocurrency’s market behavior. The cycle is closely tied to Bitcoin halving events, which reduce miner rewards approximately every four years or after 210,000 new BTC blocks are mined.

According to the report, these halvings have historically had a significant impact on BTC prices, with bull markets typically peaking between 518 and 546 days after these events.

Following the recent Bitcoin halving on April 20, 2024, CMC’s analysis of Bitcoin’s price performance suggests the possibility of reaching a new all-time high earlier than expected. Currently estimating Bitcoin’s bull market progress at 40.66%, CMC stated:

“Bitcoin is accelerating by approximately 100 days, suggesting the next peak could arrive sooner than expected — potentially between mid-May and mid-June 2025.”

Shift in Broader Market Dynamics

Despite the rapid growth, signs of slowing eco/infrastructure development suggest a shift in broader market dynamics. According to the research report, it’s unclear whether this is a temporary change or the start of a longer trend.

CMC highlighted Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with traditional assets like gold and technology stocks, as well as the growing institutional involvement from companies such as MicroStrategy and Semler Scientific, as factors potentially signaling a shift in the market cycle. 

The report also noted that, despite a rally towards the end of the third quarter, 16 sectors within the crypto market experienced at least a 10% decline in market cap during Q3, with some suffering losses of up to 40%. The decentralized finance (DeFi) and infrastructure sectors were particularly hard-hit.

In terms of global crypto user demographics, the United States continues to lead with a 17% market share, followed by India at over 9% and Brazil at 8%. Bitcoin remains the most popular cryptocurrency worldwide, while Ethereum and Solana rank prominently in various regions.

Jonathan Agozie

Jonathan Agozie is a prompt engineer committed to crafting clear and technically sound content on blockchain, cryptocurrency, and Web3 technologies.